中国能源预警模型及其预警指数的创建

在分析影响能源安全因素的基础上，选取了涵盖煤炭、石油、电力和综合4个子系统的54个预警指标，运用主成分分析和二阶回归方法建立了中国能源预警模型，创建了中国能源预警指数的概念并确定了计算方法和预警界限值，测算了1995-2007年中国能源预警指数和各子系统安全度。研究结果表明，当前我国能源安全总体状况虽已好转，但仍处于值得关注状态并接近危险状态的边缘，影响能源安全的不确定性因素较多。建议加快完善能源统计制度，深入开展预警理论、方法创新和实证研究，抓紧制定科学完备的能源应急预案，提高应对能源突发事件的能力，更好地保障能源充足、稳定、安全供应和清洁、高效使用。

Establishment of Chinese energy early warning model and indicators

On the basis of analyzing the influential factors of energy security, 54 early warning indicators were selected from the four subsystems of coal, petroleum, electric power and comprehensive evaluation, and an energy early warning model of China was established by adopting principal component analysis and second-order regression methods. The concept of energy early warning indicator of China was proposed as well as the calculation methods and the early warning thresholds. The early warning indicators and the energy security degrees for each subsystem were calculated during the years of 1995 - 2007. The research results show that though at present the overall condition of Chinese energy security is turning better, it is in the state of big concern and very close to danger. There are still many uncertain elements influencing energy security. It is suggested that the energy statistics system should be more rapidly improved, and the early warning theory, methodological innovation as well as relevant positive researches should be carried out. A scientifically perfect energy contingency response scheme should be established in no time so that our ability to cope with energy emergencies can be greatly enhanced, thereby guaranteeing the energy to be used in an ample, stable, secure, clear and efficient way.