气候变化对中国农业的影响

 在全球气候变化背景下，中国的气温不断增高，近50年中国年平均地表气温增加了1.1℃，明显高于全球；降水变化趋势不明显，年代际波动较大，也存在明显的地区差别；极端天气气候事件不断增多。未来气候变化情景，预计中国北方增温幅度高于南方，青藏高原增温最明显，年降水量增加显著区域为华北、西北及东北地区，长江中下游沿岸及其以南地区有小幅度增加。气候变暖将使粮食作物水稻、玉米和小麦的生育期缩短，产量下降；有利于棉花生产，能提高北方棉花产量和品质；三熟区面积将扩大约22.4%，一熟区面积约缩小23.1%，作物种植结构和作物品种的布局将发生变化；主要农作物病虫害呈加重趋势；对温带和寒带的家畜生长是有利的，对热带和亚热带家畜和牧草生长不利；中国四大海区主要经济鱼种的产量和渔获量有不同程度的降低；气候变暖将使中国各类自然植被发生明显北移，土地荒漠化危害范围加大，土壤肥力下降，并增加农业灌溉的需水量，农业水资源供需矛盾加剧。中国农业应对气候变化包括减缓和适应两个方面，应减缓和适应并重。

Impact of Changing Climate on Agriculture in China

Under the background of the global climate change, the mean temperature continues to rise in China during the last 50 years, with annual mean surface air temperature being increased by 1.1℃, higher than the global temperature increase; the precipitation trends are not obvious, with large interdecadal fluctuations and significant regional differences; the number of extreme weather and climate events grows. In the future climate change scenarios, the warming amplitude is higher in the northern area than in the southern area, the most obvious warming occurs over Tibetan Plateau, the annual precipitation increases significantly in the north, northwest and north-east of China, with a small increase in the Yangtze River and its southern region. The growth period of rice, maize and wheat will be shortened by climate warming, with decreased yield; climate warming is beneficial to cotton production, and can improve yield and quality of cotton in the north; the triple cropping area will increase by about 22.4%, one-harvest area will shrink by about 23.1%, the crop planting structure and layout in crop varieties will change; the situation of the main crop pests and diseases tends to be worse; climate warming is beneficial to the livestock growth in temperate and boreal regions, but detrimental to the livestock growth and forage in tropical and subtropical regions; there will be reductions to varying degrees of productions of four major economic species and fish catches in China's four sea areas; with the climate warming, various types of natural vegetation in China will move northward, the scope of desertification hazard will expand, soil fertility will decline and the agricultural irrigation water requirement will increase, the conflicts between supply and demand of agricultural water resources will be intensified. China's strategy will include two aspects, mitigation and adaptation, and both should be taken enough attention.