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利用灰色预测建立棉铃虫二代发生情况气象因素预报模型
引用本文:王二虎,仝文伟,孙欣,霍继超.利用灰色预测建立棉铃虫二代发生情况气象因素预报模型[J].河南科学,2011,29(2):169-171.
作者姓名:王二虎  仝文伟  孙欣  霍继超
作者单位:开封市气象局,河南开封,475000
摘    要:利用灰色预测,从气候角度对棉铃虫二代卵量进行分析及预测,根据棉铃虫的生态、生物学意义,对影响二代棉铃虫卵量的各有关气象因素进行灰色关联分析,求出各因素与预报量之间的关联程度,从中选择与预报量关联程度较大的要素作为预报因子,建立预测模型,并进行试报,结果与实况较为接近.

关 键 词:灰色预测  棉铃虫  气象  模型

Make Use of a Gray Estimate the Establishment Cotton Bell Insect Two Occurrence Circumstance Weather Factor to Forecast Model
Wang Erhu,Tong Wenwei,Sun Xin,Huo Jichao.Make Use of a Gray Estimate the Establishment Cotton Bell Insect Two Occurrence Circumstance Weather Factor to Forecast Model[J].Henan Science,2011,29(2):169-171.
Authors:Wang Erhu  Tong Wenwei  Sun Xin  Huo Jichao
Institution:(Meteorological Bureau of Kaifeng City,Kaifeng 475000,Henan China)
Abstract:This text makes use of a gray estimate,from the weather angle to cotton bell insect two amount of egg carry on analysis and predict,according to the ecosystem,biology meaning of cotton bell insect,carry on gray connection analysis to each relevant weather factor that influences two cotton bell insect eggs to measure,beg the connection degree of one each factor and amount of forecast,from win election to choose with forecast measure bigger main factor of connection degree as to forecast factor,establishment estimate model,and carry on trying a report,with actual condition compare for is close.
Keywords:the gray predicts  cotton bell insect  weather  model
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