祁连山北麓出山径流对气候变化的响应

祁连山是甘肃省河西走廊的地表径流发源地，每年平均从其北麓向南部的河西绿洲输送68．86％10^8m^3的径流量，因此，祁连山区北麓出山径流的变化对河地区的社会和经济发展有着举足轻重的作用，根据祁我与河西走廊平原区有关水文气象台站最新的降水、气温和径流观测资料，分析了该区域近50年来气候变化的特征及与全球气候变暖的关系、出山径流对抉变化的响应以及其未来的变化趋势，结果表明，祁连山区与河西走廊平原区近几十年来气温变化总的呈上升趋势，与全球增温存在着某种程度的一致性，但山区气温的变化幅度一般大于走廊平原区，其中又以祁连山中段地区温度升幅为最大，全球增温对河西内陆干旱区气候与出山径流的影响有着明显的地域性差异。受此影响，祁连山北麓东部地区出山径流呈明显的下降趋势；中部地区出山径流的增加趋势不是十分明显；西部出山径流在降水量与气温同时上升的情况下，呈明显的上升趋势。

Response of Runoff from the Northern Slope of the Qilian Mountain to Global Climatic Changes

The Qilian Mountains is the cradle of rivers in the Hexi arid region. The variations of the runoff from the mountainous area are important to the development of society and economy in the Hexi arid region. Generally, the variations of the runoff are affected by human activities and mainly by climatic change in runoff forming regions located in the high and middle mountainous areas. So the relationship of climatic changes in the Hexi arid region with the global climatic changes, the responses of surface runoff from the mountainous area to the global climatic changes and their future variational trends are analyzed according to the observed data of precipitation, air temperature and surface runoff from related weather and hydrologic stations in the Qilian Mountains and the Hexi Corridor. The results show there are some obvious regional differences in the effect of global climatic changes to the weather and the surface runoff in the Hexi arid region, and the surface runoff has a great consanguineous relationship with precipitation in the Qilian Mountains. Air temperature changes have little effect on the variations of runoff from the northern Qilian Mountains except the western part.