安徽省城镇化水平预测———基于IOWHA算子的组合预测

以1990-2011年安徽省城镇化水平为样本区间,在指数平滑、灰色预测与回归预测三种单项预测方法的基础上,以预测倒数误差平方和最小为准则,建立IOWHA算子组合预测模型;对该模型的预测有效度的评价结果表明该组合预测模型能有效提高预测精度;根据该组合模型预测出安徽省2012-2015年城镇化水平将分别达到46.35％、47.89％、49.44％、50.98％.

Predication for Urbanization Level of Anhui Province--Combined Forecast Based on IOWHA Operator

By taking urbanizaton level of Anhui Province during 1990-2011 as sample interval,based on such three single forecasts as exponential smoothing,grey forecast and regression forecast,by taking minimum forcast reciprocal error square sum as standard,this paper sets up IOWHA Operator Combination Model, and the evaluation results of forecast effectiveness by this Model show that this combination Model can effectively improve forecast accuracy.Based on this combination Model,this paper forecasts that the urbanization level of Anhui Province during 2012-2015 will reach 46.35 percent,47.89 percent,49.44 percent and 50.98percent respectively.