基于重心法的模糊风险分析

为了使模糊风险分析理论在实际中的应用更有效,需要建立更合理的模糊数间的相似性测度公式.以往基于重心法所建立的模糊数间的相似性测度依据的都是近似的重心公式,缺乏理论根据.针对广义梯形模糊数,采用SCGM建立准确的COG公式,说明了基于此表达式计算广义梯形模糊数相似度的优势,从而克服了用近似重心公式得到的相似性测度公式的缺陷.结果表明:基于准确COG表达式所给出的相似性测度进行模糊风险分析,得到的结果可靠性更高,便于决策者作出更加准确的决策.

Fuzzy risk analysis based on COG method

In order to make the fuzzy risk analysis theory more effective in practice,a more rational method for calculating the degree of similarity between fuzzy numbers is required.The methods based on the Center of Gravity Method actually are approximate and lack of theoretical basis.In terms of generalized trapezoidal fuzzy numbers,an accurate expression of COG based on SCGM is presented in this paper.The proposed COG expressions have an advantage in calculating similarity measure of fuzzy numbers.It overcomes the disadvantage of similarity measure method based on the approximate expressions of COG.The study shows that the results from the proposed method are more reliable and beneficial for decision-makers to make a more accurate decision.