基于碳排放约束的山东省沿海城镇带能源发展多目标优化决策

针对能源发展中的高能耗问题和碳排放问题,以山东省沿海城镇带为研究区域,将二氧化碳排放因子纳入能源消费结构优化之中,采用多目标规划的方法构建了以碳排放成本最小、能源消费产生的污染物治理费用最小为目标函数,以经济发展规划、能源消费总量、能源消费结构及碳排放量为约束函数的山东省沿海城镇带能源消费结构多目标优化模型。研究区2035年的能源发展多目标优化结果为:煤炭消费量占能源消费总数下降为36%;油类能源消费量占能源消费总数的17%;天然气消费量占能源消费总数的25%;清洁能源占能源消费总数的比例提高到22%,各项指标均满足山东省能源消费的多个目标和约束。同时,针对山东省沿海城镇带低碳情景下的未来发展,提出了加快能源供给侧和能源消费侧的结构性改革、实施清洁能源和电能替代等建议,以加快转变高耗能生产方式,促进经济结构优化升级,实现节能减排、低碳环保的可持续发展。

Multi-objective optimal decision-making of energy development in coastal town belt of Shandong province with carbon emission constraints

This paper studies the problems of the high energy consumption and the carbon emissions in the energy development, focusing on the coastal urban belt of Shandong Province, putting the factor of the carbon dioxide emission into the optimization of the energy consumption structure, and building a multi-objective optimization model of the energy consumption structure of the coastal urban belt of Shandong Province by using the method of the multi-objective planning, with the objective function as to minimize the cost of the carbon emission and the cost of the pollutant treatment from the energy consumption and with the constraint functions based on the economic development planning, the total energy consumption, the energy consumption structure and the carbon emissions. The results of the multi-objective optimization of the energy development in 2035 are as follows:the coal consumption accounts for 36% of the total energy consumption; the oil consumption accounts for 17% of the total energy consumption; the natural gas consumption accounts for 25% of the total energy consumption; and the clean energy accounts for 22% of the total energy consumption. All indicators are in line with the multiple objectives and the constraints of the energy consumption of Shandong Province. Finally, suggestions are made for the future development of the coastal cities and towns within the low carbon scenario:speeding up the structural reform of the energy supply side and the energy consumption side, and implementing effective measures such as clean energy and electricity substitution, in order to accelerate the transformation of the high-energy-consuming production mode, promoting the optimization and the upgrading of the economic structure, to achieve a sustainable development of the energy saving, the emission reduction and the low-carbon environmental protection.