| 指数——威布尔寿命分布转折点估计的探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 翁莉娟.指数——威布尔寿命分布转折点估计的探讨[J].北京工商大学学报(自然科学版),1991(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 翁莉娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京轻工业学院数学教研室 |
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| 摘 要： | 一个复杂的机械系统,在运行一定时间后进入磨损状态,使失效率增大.为此,考虑系统的寿命分布有两个状态,导出指数——威布尔磨损寿命分布.本文讨论了分布的性质,并推导出一种Bayes自适应方法来估计转折点,给出了递推公式以确定发生转折后的后验概率及其Bayes估计量.
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| 关 键 词： | 失效率 磨损变换估计 Bayes估计量 |
DISSCUSSION ON ESTIMATING CHANGE POINT OF THE EXPONENTIAL——WEIBULL LIFE DISTRIBUTION |
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| Weng Lijuan Beijing Institute of Light Industry.DISSCUSSION ON ESTIMATING CHANGE POINT OF THE EXPONENTIAL——WEIBULL LIFE DISTRIBUTION[J].Journal of Beijing Technology and Business University:Natural Science Edition,1991(2). |
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| Authors: | Weng Lijuan Beijing Institute of Light Industry |
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| Institution: | Weng Lijuan Beijing Institute of Light Industry |
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| Abstract: | A complex mechanical system has a higher failure rate in wear-out phase after operating for a certain time. Based on this practical consideration, an exponential-weibull type life distribu distribution with two phases are considered. Phase I with a constant failure rate is called stable phase, phase Ⅱ is called wear-out phase with increasing failure rate comparing to phase I. The epoch from phase Ⅰ to phase Ⅱ is called change point.
Based on the exponential——weibull Life distribution, a Bayes autoadaptive method for estimating change point is suggested. |
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| Keywords: | failure rate Bayes estimator estimating the shift to wear-out |
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