评估洪水灾情等级的投影寻踪模型

为检验所订洪水灾情等级标准的合理性 ,解决各单项指标灾情等级评估结果的不相容问题 ,提高灾情等级模型的灾级分辨率 ,提出了一种新的洪水灾情等级模型——投影寻踪 ( PP)模型 ,它的灾级是连续的实数值 .为减少 PP建模的计算量 ,给出了一套建模方案 ,构造了新的投影指标函数 ,并统一用实码加速遗传算法来优化投影指标函数和模型参数 .实例的计算结果表明 ,该方案是有效的和通用的 ,具有广泛的应用前景.

Projection Pursuit Model for Evaluating Grade of Flood Disaster Loss

In order to test the grade criterions of flood disaster loss, to resolve the non-uniformity problem of evaluation results of disaster loss indexes, and to raise the grade resolution of flood disaster loss, a new model-projection pursuit (PP) model is suggested for evaluating the grade model of flood disaster, where the disaster loss grade is real number. A scheme of PP modeling is also presented to reduce the computational amount, a new function of projection indexes is given, and it is suggested that both the function of projection indexes and the parameters of PP model can be optimized by using a real coding based genetic algorithm. The calculation example shows that the scheme is effective and general, which can be applied to evaluation of many natural disasters.