影响我国汽车产业竞争力的因素分析:一个UECM模型

采用非限制误差修正模型(UECM)分析了劳动力的投入、资本劳动力的比率和开放度对我国汽车产业总产值的影响,利用界限检验和协整模型,估算了这些因素对总产值的长期和短期弹性.结果发现,无论从长期还是短期而言,劳动力对总产值有负的影响,资本劳动力比对总产值有正的影响;开放度仅在长期对总产值有正且显著的影响.最后对如何提高我国汽车产业竞争力提出了相应的对策建议.

Impact of Determinants on the Competitiveness of the Auto Industry: A UECM Model

In this paper,we empirically assess the impact of internal and external factors on the auto industry.Here,we examine the impact of labor,capital labor ratio and openness on the output of the domestic auto industry using the unrestricted error correction model(UECM).Based on the bounds test we assess if the output of the auto industry is cointegrated with the above-mentioned determinants.The estimated short-run and long-run elasticities with respect to the determinants are reported.We found that whether long-run and short-run,labour has negative and significant effect on output,factor proportions have positive impact,openness has significant and positive effect only in the long-run.Strategies to enhance competitiveness in the auto industry are given in the paper.