风险矩阵评估方法研究与工程应用综述

风险矩阵评估方法简便易用,在工程领域内应用广泛,但其有效性也一直备受质疑.研究分析了风险矩阵评估方法中风险概念的内涵,比较了协方差矩阵与风险矩阵的异同,回顾了风险矩阵评估方法的起源,并给出了风险矩阵的基本数学模型,从而明确风险矩阵评估方法的几个理论问题.针对风险评估结果准确性问题,尝试提出了“不稳定性”的评价指标,并明确了风险矩阵评估方法不稳定性在工程应用中的涵义.基于数学模型,探究了风险矩阵构建过程、风险结和矩阵评价形式等不稳定性的来源.最后,总结了对风险矩阵评估方法不稳定性的认知角度和控制对策,建议了未来的发展方向.

A Review on Risk Matrix Method and Its Engineering Application

Risk matrix method (RMM) is widely used in engineering field since it is succinct and practical to perform, while the validity of its assessment results has also been challenged since its appearance. By illustrating the connotation of risk in RMM and the similarity between risk matrix and covariance matrix, a general retrospection on the origin of RMM is performed. The basic mathematical model of risk matrix is introduced by adopting classification function, and some theoretical issues of RMM are elucidated. According to the accuracy issues of risk assessment, the notion of uncertainty is proposed as an evaluation index. The meaning of RMM uncertainty in engineering application is clarified. Based on the mathematical model, a discussion is held on the appearance of RMM uncertainty, sourcing from Risk Matrix establishment process, risk ties and the matrix evaluation form. In the end, a general review on how to recognize and control the corresponding uncertainties properly and effectively is delivered and the future development directions are proposed.