基于指数法的农田生态系统生产力稳定性研究

为实现农田生态系统生产力持续稳定的增长,把握农田生产力的发展规律,进行农田生态系统生产力时空变异分析是十分重要和必要的。以1974~2005年河北省雄县农村统计数据为依据,在运用层次分析法计算农田生态系统生产力指数(API)的基础上,采用剩余法剥离生产力波动,从年际变化和空间变异两个角度总结了农田生产力稳定性规律和分布特征,为研究生产力稳定性变化提供一种新思路。分析结果表明,雄县生产力稳定性级别年际分布比例均衡,农田生产力在32a中基本处于稳定状态,作物生产供给基本平衡;生产力稳定性具有从不稳定向稳定发展的阶段性变化趋势;雄县9个乡镇API的波动分为3个级别,由西南向东北方向稳定性逐渐降低。

Study on the Productivity Stability of Agroecosystem Based on Index Method

The temporal variability analysis of productivity of agroecosystem was crucial for carrying out sustained improvement and mastering progress disciplinarian of agroecosystem.Based on statistical data of Xiong county in Hebei province of 1974-2005,the paper summed the agro-productivity stable tendency and time-sequence characteristics by separating agro-productivity waves via residue method which calculated the API by Analytical Hierarchy Process.It provides a new way for assessing productive stability.The results showed that productivity stability of Xiong County was balanceable and agro-productivity progress was stable among the 32 years,grain supply was balanceable,the production stability had the trend which from unstable to stable.Among the nine villages and towns in Xiong County,the API index was classified into three levels and the stability declined from southwest to northeast in this scope.