区域经济中长期预测的支持向量回归方法

分析了区域经济发展特性以及中长期经济预测的特点,对当前经济预测方法存在的不足进行了阐述,指出:由于区域经济系统中存在高度的非线性、耦合性和时变性,使得现有的经济预测方法难以胜任.介绍了支持向量回归算法,并在此基础上,提出了基于支持向量回归的方法对区域经济进行中长期预测的思路,并建立了相应的数学模型.以广东省江门市作为应用对象,说明了该模型的有效性.

A SVR-based Model for Regional Economy Medium-term and Long-term Forecast

Based on the analysis of characteristics of regional economy and forecasting methods for medium-term and long-term economic development,drawbacks of current forecasting methods were explained as that those methods are not suitable for forecasting medium-term and long-term economic development due to its nonlinearity,coupling and dynamicity.A support vector regression algorithm was been introduced,and then an idea of forecasting medium-term and long-term regional economy based on the algorithm was explained and a mathematic model based on the idea was proposed.At last,an experiment was conducted to verify the proposed model on the economic dataset of Jiangmen,Guangdong.