豫西山区两次典型对流天气过程的对比分析

利用常规气象资料和三门峡多普勒雷达资料,对2013年7月中下旬发生在豫西山区的2次对流天气过程进行对比分析,结果发现:副热带高压所处状态和西风槽的特征在一定程度上决定了降水的性质和强度,有效把握这类天气特点,可很大程度避免预报的空报或漏报;夏季来自北路或东路的冷空气,在高空气流的引导下常常会触发局地强降水,甚至雷雨大风等;在雷达回波上,一个强回波单体长时间稳定维持或列车效应往往产生强降水;风廓线图可以用来判断是否有冷暖平流及风切变的变化.针对这两次对流天气过程,高空形势预报非常准确,但冷空气强度预报偏弱,若结合自动站资料、本地气候特点、地形地貌等特征,则可以准确订正出来.

Comparative Analysis of Two Typical Convective Weather Processes in West Henan Mountainous Area

Based on the conventional meteorological data and Doppler radar data of Sanmenxia,two weather processes occured in the mountainous ares in western Henan in mid to late July 2013 were analyzed. Results show that subtropical high is（more or less）properties and westerly trough（sliding slot or plateau trough）to a certain extent determines the nature and intensity of precipitation,which need to be special attention,effective use of this kind of weather characteristics,and can greatly improve the accuracy of prediction and service quality,to avoid empty and omissions. Precipitation in summer is very strong,especially the strong precipitation,even the thunderstorm gale. Rainfall in the radar echo is usually embodied in a single long time stability caused by or somewhere by the effect of continuous monomer. Wind profile can judge whether the cold advection exists,variation of wind shear. The upper situation forecast is very accurate,but the cold air intensity forecast is weak. If combined with the trend prediction,the effective combination of real-time data and information,the local climate characteristic,and automatic station landform,the accuracy of forecasting can be greatly improved.