基于生态足迹模型的湖北省可持续发展定量研究

利用生态足迹评价模型,计算了湖北省1990—2012年的生态足迹和生态承载力,并通过灰色GM(1,1)预测模型预测了湖北省2013—2020年的生态足迹、生态承载力和万元GDP生态足迹.结果显示:①1990—1995年的人均生态足迹低于人均生态承载力,资源环境能够满足社会经济发展的需求;②2000—2012年的人均生态足迹均高于人均生态承载力,社会经济发展处于不可持续状态;③万元GDP消耗的生态足迹由3.92 hm2下降到0.49 hm2,资源利用效率显著提高.④对生态足迹的预测表明,短期内湖北省生态赤字继续存在,其经济社会的持续发展依然面临挑战.

Quantitative Study on Sustainable Development of Hubei Based on Ecological Footprint Model

Using ecological footprint model,we calculated the ecological footprint and the ecological carrying capacity of Hubei Province from 1990 to 2012,then predicted them by grey GM（1,1）. The results showed as follows.①From 1990-1995,the per capita ecological footprint were lower than per capita ecological carrying capacity ,so resources and environment could meet the needs of social and economic development;②The per capita ecological footprint from 2000 to 2012 were higher than the per capita ecological carrying capacity,so social and economic development were in a state of unsustainable;③The ecological footprint of ten thousand yuan GDP decreased from 3.92 hm^2 to 0.49 hm^2,resource use efficiency improved significantly;④The prediction results of ecological footprint showed that the ecological deficit of Hubei will remain in the short time,its economic and social sustainable development still faces challenges.