| 季节ARIMA模型在我国肺结核发病率预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈友春,朱文婕.季节ARIMA模型在我国肺结核发病率预测中的应用[J].太原师范学院学报(自然科学版),2012,11(2):46-49. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈友春 朱文婕 |
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| 作者单位： | 蚌埠医学院计算机教研室,安徽蚌埠,233000 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的探讨应用季节ARIMA模型对我国肺结核发病率进行预测的可行性.方法对我国2005年1月-2010年12月肺结核逐月发病率建立季节ARIMA模型,并对预测效果进行评价.结果 ARIMA（3,1,0）×（0,1,1）12模型很好地拟合了既往数据,对2011年1月-9月发病率的预测值符合实际发病率变动趋势.结论季节ARIMA模型能很好地模拟我国肺结核发病率的变动趋势,将其应用于肺结核发病率预测是可行的.
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| 关 键 词： | 时间序列 季节ARIMA模型 肺结核 预测 |
Application of Seasonal ARIMA Model in Forecasting Incidence of Tuberculosis |
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| Chen Youchun Zhu Wenjie.Application of Seasonal ARIMA Model in Forecasting Incidence of Tuberculosis[J].Journal of Taiyuan Normal University:Natural Science Edition,2012,11(2):46-49. |
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| Authors: | Chen Youchun Zhu Wenjie |
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| Institution: | Chen Youchun Zhu Wenjie(Computer T&R Section,Bengbu Medical College,Bengbu 233000,China) |
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| Abstract: | Objective]To explore the feasibility of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(SARIMA)model to predict the incidence of tuberculosis in China.Methods]SARIMA model was established based on the incidence of tuberculosis in China during 2005.01-2010.12 and the prediction effect of SARIMA model was also evaluated.Results]Model of ARIMA(3,1,0)×(0,1,1)12exactly fitted the incidence in the previous months.The fit values of incidence during 2011.01-2011.09 were consistent with the actual data of incidence.Conclusion]SARIMA model can be used to exactly to fit the changes of the incidence of tuberculosis in China and to predict the incidence in future. |
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| Keywords: | time series seasonal ARIMA model tuberculosis forecasting |
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