城市交叉口混合交通流到达模型分析

以城市交叉口机动车、电动车、行人为对象,研究混合交通流的到达模型。通过调查获得3种交通流每10 s的到达数据,运用数理方法对其到达特性进行分析。结果表明,机动车的到达特性不一致,电动车、行人的到达特性都符合负二项分布。最后确定3种交通流的到达模型和单位时间内到达交叉口的概率。结果表明,单位时间内交通流到达数越少,概率越大。

Analysis of Arrival Model of Mixed-Traffic Flow in Urban Intersection

In order to study the arrival model of mixed - traffic flow in urban intersection, the paper put motor vehicles, electric bicycles and pedestrians as the research object. Firstly the arrival data in every 10 s could be got through the survey. Then the arrival characteristics of motor vehicle, electric bicycle and pedestrians were analyzed using the mathematical method. The results show that the arrival characteristics of motor vehicle in each intersection entrance are inconformity; the arrival characteristics of e- lectric bicycle and pedestrians all conform to negative binomial distribution. Finally, the arrival models of motor vehicles, electric bicycles and pedestrians were determined and the smaller arrival probability in a unit time were predicted. The results show that the arrival number in unit time, the greater probability.