| 基于灰色理论与BP网络的负荷预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 崔巍,张梅. 基于灰色理论与BP网络的负荷预测[J]. 辽宁工程技术大学学报(自然科学版), 2011, 30(4): 631-633. DOI: 21-1379/N.20110613.1751.002 |
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| 作者姓名： | 崔巍 张梅 |
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| 作者单位： | 大连海事大学交通运输管理学院 辽宁大连116026 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(71072124) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对用BP神经网络进行预测时权值难以确定的问题,提出了一种基于将灰色理论与BP神经网络相结合的预测算法。采用数量研究法,选取重庆市某供电局1999年到2006年的售电量作为样本,利用不同的灰色模型对样本进行预测,再选出预测的最优值对BP网络进行训练,最后用已训练好的BP网络对样本数据进行预测。经实例预测表明:灰色理论与BP网络相结合的预测精度与单一的预测模型相比有了明显的改进,该算法在理论和实践应用中都是可行的,并为电力部门的生产运行和规划提供了重要的参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色理论 BP神经网络 负荷预测 精度 权值 预测模型 |
Prediction of load based on grey theory and BP networks |
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| CUI Wei,ZHANG Mei. Prediction of load based on grey theory and BP networks[J]. Journal of Liaoning Technical University (Natural Science Edition), 2011, 30(4): 631-633. DOI: 21-1379/N.20110613.1751.002 |
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| Authors: | CUI Wei ZHANG Mei |
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| Affiliation: | CUI Wei,ZHANG Mei(College of Transportation and Traffic Management,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to overcome the difficulty in determining the weights of a BP network,this paper presents a prediction method based on grey theory and BP neural network.Using the quantitative research method,the electricity sales in a power supply bureau in Chongqing between 1999 and 2006 were selected as samples.The selected different grey models were used to predict the samples,and then the optimum value,which was predicted by gray models,was selected as the training samples to train the BP network.Finally the t... |
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| Keywords: | grey theories BP neural network load forecasting precision weights prediction model |
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