黑龙江省一次能源消费总量和消费结构预测研究

以黑龙江省一次能源为研究对象，选取其1995~2014年一次能源消费的历史数据，构建了改进的BP神经网络模型来预测黑龙江省2015~2020年一次能源的消费总量；重构马尔科夫模型，预测黑龙江省2015~2020年一次能源的消费结构。结果表明：构建的模型模拟预测结果误差小，预测准确度良好。2015~2020年黑龙江省一次能源消费总量基本稳定在9200万吨标准煤；能源消费结构中煤炭、石油和天然气的份额均有所降低，清洁能源占比呈增长趋势；到2020年，一次能源消费结构中煤炭占比仍高达65.39%，清洁能源占比仍处于弱势。建议：降低一次能源的消费总量，尤其是煤炭和石油在一次能源消费中的占比；合理调整一次能源的消费结构，降低煤炭在能源消费结构中的占比；政府出台相关政策，引导消费理念，优先使用清洁能源。

Primary energy consumption and its structure in Heilongjiang province

In this work we selected historical data for primary energy consumption and its structure in Heilongjiang province from 1995 to 2014 and adopted an improved BP neural network model to forecast the primary energy consumption from 2015 to 2020, volume and the Markov model to forecast primary energy consumption structure from 2015 to 2020. The results show that the primary energy consumption of Heilongjiang province in 2015-2020 will remain essentially constant, at 92 million tons of standard coal. The share of coal, oil and natural gas in the energy consumption structure will reduce year by year, while that of clean energy will increase. However, by 2020, the proportion of coal in the primary energy consumption structure will still be as high as 65%, and the proportion of clean energy will still be relatively low. The results suggest it is necessary to reduce the total amount of primary energy consumption, especially the proportion of coal and oil in primary energy consumption by rationally adjusting the primary energy consumption structure. The government should promulgate relevant policies to guide the concept of energy consumption and give priority to the use of clean energy.