中国能源消费、碳排放与经济增长关系的实证研究

利用中国1960～2008年的样本数据,运用Toda-Yamamoto检验程序对中国能源消费、碳排放与经济增长三者之间的因果关系进行了计量研究.研究结果表明,经济增长与能源消费都是CO2排放的单向Granger原因,即经济增长与能源消费的增加会导致CO2排放的增加,反之则不成立.能源消费与经济增长之间存在双向的Granger因果关系.研究表明中国的能源消费和相应的CO2排放在今后几十年乃至更长时期内还将持续增长,因此中国应该制定并实施相关政策来降低CO2排放.

Research on the Relationship of Energy Consumption, Carbon Emission and Economic Growth in China

Based on the sample data of China from 1960 to 2008,this paper used Toda-Yamamoto test program to carry out quantitative research on China’s energy consumption,carbon emission and economic growth in the causal relationship between the three.The results show that economic growth and energy consumption are the cause of CO2 emission Granger causality.It means that economic growth and the increase in energy consumption will lead to increased CO2 emissions,and vice versa.Energy consumption and economic growth have two-way Granger causality.The results show that China’s energy consumption and the corresponding carbon dioxide emission in the coming decades will continue to grow.Therefore,China should actively formulate and implement policies to reduce carbon dioxide emission.