混凝土高坝泄洪可靠度研究

本文提出了混凝土高坝泄洪风险的计算模式,系统地分析了影响泄洪风险的不确定性及其随机变量,用JC法计算了国内一些混凝土高坝的泄洪风险,还对泄洪目标风险值进行了讨论.计算结果表明,我国混凝土高坝承担的泄洪风险大约为1O~5数量级,这与国外的研究结果是一致的.本文计算结果和分析方法可供我国高混凝土坝安全检查和工程设计时参考.

Flood Relief Risk Computation for High Concrete Dams

Risk analysis for the hydraulic design of engineering project is a new problem for hydraulic engineers all over the world. A risk computation model is given in the paper. The major concern of the paper is to show how hydrologic and hydraulic uncertainties can be analysed and how flood relief risk of high concrete dams can be computed. The JC method used widely in structural risk computation is introduced into hydraulic risk computation, which is more convennient and practical than other methods which is now being used in hydraulic risk computation. In order to illustrate flood relief risk computation for high concrete dams, some large hydro-power projects are taken as examples. The results show that, the flood relief risk value of high concrete dams in our country is about 10~(-5), it coincides with results by other researchers abroad. The computing method and results provide reference for safety inspection and design of high concrete dams.