| 灰色模型及其在我国报纸发行量预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 钟秉林,茅炫,黄仁.灰色模型及其在我国报纸发行量预测中的应用[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),1988(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 钟秉林 茅炫 黄仁 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京工学院机械工程系，南京工学院机械工程系，南京工学院机械工程系 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家哲学社会科学“七·五”计划重点课题子项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文讨论了灰色模型的机理和特点,建立了描述我国报纸发行系统发展规律的灰色动态模型,并据此对报纸发行量进行了预测。研究结果表明:灰色预测方法的精度高于传统的确定性趋势预测方法,尤其适合于对信息量不足、作用机制不确定的抽象系统进行中短期预测,从而为科学决策提供依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色模型 灰色预测 灰导数 累加生成 报纸发行系统 |
Grey Model and Its Application to Newspaper Circulation Forecasting |
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| Zhong Binglin Mao Xuan Huang Ren.Grey Model and Its Application to Newspaper Circulation Forecasting[J].Journal of Southeast University(Natural Science Edition),1988(2). |
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| Authors: | Zhong Binglin Mao Xuan Huang Ren |
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| Institution: | Department of Mechanical Engineering |
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| Abstract: | The principle and characteristics of grey model are studied in this paper. The dynamic model GM(1,1) in the form of differential equation are modeled and used to forecast the newspaper circulation.The results show that the accuracy of grey forecasting is better than that of the tranditional determini- stic trend forecasting;especially,this method is available to analyse the abstract system with small amount of information and indeterminateness,and can provide basis for scientific decision. |
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| Keywords: | grey model grey forecasting grey derivative accumulated generating operation newspaper circulation system |
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