| 基于广义伽马分布的系统可靠性增长预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙永全,郭建英,孙永国,于春雨,丁喜波.基于广义伽马分布的系统可靠性增长预测[J].北京理工大学学报,2010,30(9):1131-1134. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙永全 郭建英 孙永国 于春雨 丁喜波 |
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| 作者单位： | 哈尔滨理工大学,传感器与可靠性工程研究所,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150080;哈尔滨理工大学,机械动力工程学院,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150080 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目，国家"八六三"计划项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 研究了系统可靠性增长预测方法.论证了可靠性增长试验中系统失效时间服从广义伽马分布,进而预测系统未来失效时间及可靠性,给出了点估计和区间估计,并引入标准差和比例系数进行预测精度分析.实际算例验证了该方法的有效性.
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| 关 键 词： | 非齐次 Poisson 过程 可靠性增长预测 广义伽马分布 预测精度 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009/9/22 0:00:00 |
System Reliability Growth Prediction Based on Generalized Gamma Distribution |
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| SUN Yong-quan,GUO Jian-ying,SUN Yong-guo,YU Chun-yu and DING Xi-bo.System Reliability Growth Prediction Based on Generalized Gamma Distribution[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology(Natural Science Edition),2010,30(9):1131-1134. |
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| Authors: | SUN Yong-quan GUO Jian-ying SUN Yong-guo YU Chun-yu and DING Xi-bo |
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| Institution: | SUN Yong-quan1,GUO Jian-ying1,SUN Yong-guo2,YU Chun-yu1,DING Xi-bo1 (1.Institute of Sensor and Reliability Engineering,Harbin University of Science and Technology,Harbin,Heilongjiang 150080,China,2.Mechanical & Power Engineering College,China) |
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| Abstract: | The system reliability growth prediction method is established based on generalized gamma distribution. The failure time obeys the generalized gamma distribution is proved, and then system future failure time and reliability are predicted by giving point estimations and interval estimations. Finally, prediction accuracy is analyzed by introducing standard deviation and proportional coefficient. An example is presented to show the validity. |
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| Keywords: | non-homogeneous Poisson process reliability growth prediction generalized gamma distribution prediction accuracy |
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