| 模糊综合评判法在风险分析中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 田芳.模糊综合评判法在风险分析中的应用[J].系统工程与电子技术,2003,25(2):174-176. |
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| 作者姓名： | 田芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 63961部队 北京100012 |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍了模糊综合评判模型以及模糊综合评判向量的常用计算类型 ,并探讨了模糊综合评判法在风险分析中的应用。在风险决策分析中 ,用风险因素分析法只能得到备选方案的一个风险值。如果在该方法中应用模糊综合评判 ,增加对风险的模糊评语 ,则可以得到备选方案风险程度的综合评判 ,从而为风险决策分析提供更多的决策信息。给出了模糊综合评判法在风险决策分析中的具体应用步骤。作为例子 ,建立了炮兵武器装备研制规划方案的风险决策分析模型。
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| 关 键 词： | 模糊综合评判 风险分析 决策 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-506X(2003)02-0174-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年3月15日 |
Application of Fuzzy Comprehensive Judgement in Risk Analysis |
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| TIAN Fang.Application of Fuzzy Comprehensive Judgement in Risk Analysis[J].System Engineering and Electronics,2003,25(2):174-176. |
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| Authors: | TIAN Fang |
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| Abstract: | The model of fuzzy comprehensive judgement and the common calculation types of fuzzy comprehensive judgement vector are introduced, and the application of the fuzzy comprehensive judgement in risk analysis is discussed. Using the analytical method of risk factors in the risk decision analysis, only one risk value of the selected plan can be got. When the fuzzy comprehensive judgement is applied in the analytical method of risk factors, and more fuzzy comments on the risk are made, the comprehensive judgement on the risk level of the selected plan can be obtained, which provides more information for risk decision analysis. The detailed steps for applying fuzzy comprehensive judgement in risk decision analysis are proposed. As an example, a risk decision analysis model for artillery weapon development plans is given. |
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| Keywords: | Fuzzy comprehensive judgement Risk analysis Plan decision |
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