空间碎片TLE数据演化误差分析

针对空间碎片碰撞预警计算的误差问题，提出TLE数据演化误差野值处理和分析方法，得到了国际空间站不同预报期的误差分析结果，给出了变化规律，并对其分布进行了初步分析，结合碰撞预警工程实际给出了预警时间提前量和误差精细化分析的建议. 结果表明，野值处理对于异常变化的低轨道物体十分有效，目前预警计算中误差的零均值正态分布的假定对于长预报期并不合理，并基于误差分析结果给出了预警时间提前量小于3 d的建议.

TLE Data Propagation Error Analysis of Space Debris

The outlier disposal and analysis method of two-line elements (TLE) data propagation errors were put forward for the error problem in the collision warning work. The error analysis results and their varying patterns were given for different prediction time of ISS. The normality was analyzed and the suggestions of the time lead for the collision warning were given combined with engineering application. The results demonstrated that the outlier disposal method is valid and the assumption of zero mean and the normality is not suitable. The time lead of three days is suggested based on the error analysis results.