事件树建模及其在石化安全评估软件中的应用

在石油化工领域，有效地进行安全评估具有重要意义。事件树建模是进行系统安全评估的一种有效方法。本文从世界银行颁布的“工业风险评估技术标准”出发，采用事件树建模方法，开发了一套石油化工安全评估软件。本软件包括危险部件选取、事件树分析、模型算法库、结果报表、分析评估和帮助等六个模块，涵盖安全评估的全流程。在软件核心部分事件树分析模块中，针对石油化工领域内的四大主要危险发生源，建立了相应的四个事件树模型，分别为易燃气体事件树模型、易燃液体事件树模型、有毒气体事件树模型和有毒液体事件树模型。在模型算法库模块，给出了六类不同的模型算法子库，分别为泄漏模型子库、火灾模型子库、爆炸模型子库、扩散模型子库、毒云模型子库和溢流模型子库。另外，对软件中与建模相关的关键技术进行了详细讨论。

Event Tree Modeling and Its Application in Petrochemical Hazard Assessing Software

In the petrochemical industry, it is a very important task to conduct hazard assessing. Event tree modeling is one of the useful methods for system hazard assessing. Assessing Industrial Hazards Techniques Standard, published by the World Bank, is widely applied in petrochemical plants in Europe and USA. Based on this standard, we use the method of event tree modeling to develop a petrochemical hazard assessing software. This software package consists of six main modules which cover the whole assessing process such as selecting the failure components, event tree analyzing, model algorithm bases, etc. In the core of this software, the module of event tree analyzing, four different event tree models are built for the four main hazard resources in the petrochemical industry. These four include models of Flammable Gas Event Tree, Toxic Gas Event Tree, Flammable Liquid Event Tree and Toxic Liquid Event Tree. Six different model algorithm sub-bases in the model algorithm base module are presented. They are Outflow model-base, After Release model-base, Dispersion model-base, Fires model-base, Explosion model-base and Effects of Toxic Release model-base. Furthermore, we also discuss the critical technologies related to modeling such as modular modeling, assessing algorithm, and uncertainty analysis etc.