工程项目投资费用的随机-模糊估算方法研究

由于工程造价受到许多不确定性因素影响，既有随机性，又有模糊性，为了对其进行经济论证，根据系统的可分解性，将总体工程费用分解成若干个子工程费用；运用模糊数学贴近度概念估算出子工程费用；由于工程费用叠加构成总体工程费用的最可能造价值。依据专家经验和工程实际，在最可能造价值基础上上下波动组成最小值、最可能值、最大值三个特征估计值。考虑到随机性和模糊性，根据概率论和模糊数学原理，确立随机－模糊数学特征的统计方法，提出了工程造价的随机－模糊估算方法，客观地反映了工程造价的实际变化特性。

Research on random-fuzzy estimation method of construction cost

Rational estimation of the construction cost is of key importance to obtain reliable technical and economic appraisal result of a project. It is influenced by a lot of uncertainty factors with the randomness and the fuzziness. In this paper, total construction cost is decomposed into costs of several sub-constructions according to the decomposability of system. Then, with the near-degree concept 'in fuzzy mathematics, the sub-construction cost is estimated on the basis of the similarity between built and undetermined sub-projects. Finally, the most probable cost of total construction is composed costs of several subconstructions. Based on expert experiences and actualities, three characteristic values of total cost are detemined (minimum value, most probable cost and maximum value ). Considering the randomness and fuzziness, the statistics method for the random-fuzzy probabilistic numerical characteristics is set up and the random-fuzzy estimating method of the project cost is put forword.