Changes in fossil-fuel carbon emissions in response to interannual and interdecadal temperature variability

Relationships on interannual and interdecadal timescales among global mean air temperature, CO₂ concentrations and fossil-fuel carbon emissions in four major developed countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) were analyzed. On an interannual timescale, the United States fossil-fuel carbon emissions tend to increase during cold winters and decrease during warm winters, which is opposite to the situation in summer. On an interdecadal timescale, cold (warm) periods both in the United States and globally agree with high (low) periods of fossil-fuel carbon emissions, with the temperature variability leading by 5–7 years. The leading correlation on the interdecadal timescale and the asymmetry in seasonal correlation on the interannual timescale indicate that temperature variability is a possible cause of changes in fossil-fuel carbon emissions.