| 漳河流域水资源冲突政策影响机制模拟 |
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| 引用本文： | 于荣,王慧敏,牛文娟,牛富.漳河流域水资源冲突政策影响机制模拟[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(4):1067-1075. |
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| 作者姓名： | 于荣 王慧敏 牛文娟 牛富 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 河海大学 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室, 南京 210098;
2. 河海大学 管理科学研究所, 南京 210098;
3. 海河水利委员会 漳河上游管理局, 邯郸 056006 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，国家社会科学基金重大项目，国家社会科学重点基金，国家社会科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 政府的管理政策在一定程度上影响着水资源冲突主体的行为决策, 从这个角度入手寻求漳河流域水资源冲突的解决方案是一个新的视角.基于这一思想,用元胞自动机描述冲突主体的行为,人性特征和环境因素, 在政策因素的基础上, 设计了水资源冲突主体状态转换规则,用C#实现了模拟过程.仿真结果表明: 政府调整初次分配水价和水权价格对解决漳河流域水资源冲突是有效的,政府应提高冲突主体的政策执行度,缓解当地水资源冲突.
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| 关 键 词： | 水资源冲突 管理政策 主体行为 定性模拟 漳河流域 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011-01-11 |
Simulation of policy influence mechanism for water resources conflict in Zhanghe River Basin |
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| YU Rong
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WANG Hui-min
,
NIU Wen-juan
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NIU Fu.Simulation of policy influence mechanism for water resources conflict in Zhanghe River Basin[J].Systems Engineering —Theory & Practice,2013,33(4):1067-1075. |
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| Authors: | YU Rong WANG Hui-min NIU Wen-juan NIU Fu |
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| Institution: | 1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;
2. Institute of Management Science, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;
3. Zhanghe River Upstream Authority, Haihe River Water Conservancy Commission, Handan 056006, China |
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| Abstract: | The management policy taken by government could have some influence on the activity of subjects in water resource conflict. Taking this into account will provide some reference for the solution of water resource conflict in the Zhanghe River Basin. In view of this, cellular automata method is used to describe the activity of group members and the process of water recourse conflict is simulated. Meanwhile, based on the social attribute of human beings and group environment, i.e., the policy, the transformation of conflict group's state is designed. What's more, C# is used to realize the simulation. The results show that management measures are effective to solve trans-boundary water resource conflict. The government should raise the policy implementation degree of conflict agents to alleviate local water conflicts. |
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| Keywords: | water resources conflict management policy agent behavior qualitative simulation Zhanghe River Basin |
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