巴里坤湖流域生态安全评价及预测研究

针对巴里坤湖流域面临的湖泊萎缩、荒漠化和土壤盐渍化等生态问题,采用层次分析法,选择16个因素作为评价指标,对巴里坤湖流域2006-2015年的生态安全进行评价与预测。结果表明:由于经济生态安全系统和自然生态安全系统指标的快速下降,该流域生态安全长期处于下降状态;预测今后该流域生态安全将持续下降,2020年甚至接近很不安全状态。若这种趋势不能得到有效缓解,则将对巴里坤湖泊流域的可持续发展产生不利影响。

Evaluation and Prediction of Barkol Lake Watershed Ecological Security

In view of the ecological problems such as lake shrinking, desertification and soil salinization in the Barkol Lake watershed, using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), 16 factors were selected as the evaluation indexes, and the ecological security status of the Barkol Lake watershed from 2006 to 2015 was evaluated and predicted. The results show that the ecological security of the watershed is declining for a long time due to the rapid decline of the economic ecological security system and the natural ecological security system. The forecast shows that the ecological security of the watershed will continue to decline or even close to the unsafe state. If this trend cannot be effectively mitigated, it will have a negative impact on the sustainable development of the Barkol Lake watershed.