| 近20a云南洪涝灾害损失的灰色关联度分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 周德丽.近20a云南洪涝灾害损失的灰色关联度分析[J].云南大学学报(自然科学版),2011(Z1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 周德丽 |
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| 作者单位： | 云南大学大气科学系;云南省气象台; |
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| 基金项目： | 云南省气象局气候变化专项资助项目(QH201003); 云南省社会发展科技计划资助项目(2009CA023) |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1991～2010年云南省洪涝灾害灾情数据,基于灰色系统理论计算灾情灰色关联度,对洪涝灾害进行定量评估,并分析其变化趋势.结果表明:近20 a间云南洪涝灾害损失1990年代后期为一个高峰期,1998年最重;受灾人口、死亡人口、损坏房屋、农作物受灾面积的变化趋势较为一致,出现峰值后呈下降趋势,而直接经济损失的变化趋势不明显;1998、1999年划为极重灾年,1996、1997、2001年为重灾年.
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| 关 键 词： | 洪涝 灾害评估 灰色理论 |
An analysis to the grey association degree of losses caused by flood disaster of Yunnan in recent 20 years |
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| ZHOU De-li.An analysis to the grey association degree of losses caused by flood disaster of Yunnan in recent 20 years[J].Journal of Yunnan University(Natural Sciences),2011(Z1). |
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| Authors: | ZHOU De-li |
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| Institution: | ZHOU De-li1,2(1.Department of Atmospheric Science,Yunnan University,Kunming 650091,China,2.Yunnan Meteorological Observatory,Kunming 650034,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on grey system theory,using the losses of flood disaster during 1991 to 2010,the degree of gray association to flood disaster is calculated.The degree of association is used to evaluate the quantificational degree of disaster,and the change trend of disaster losses is further analyzed.The results show that there is a peak period of disaster losses in the late of 1990s,and the degree of gray association of flood disaster in 1998 is the greatest in recent 20 years.The change trends of affected populatio... |
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| Keywords: | flood evaluation model of disaster condition grey theory |
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