| 梅州市一次秋雨空报过程的分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 袁家峰,张清华,刘蕾.梅州市一次秋雨空报过程的分析[J].云南大学学报(自然科学版),2011(Z1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 袁家峰 张清华 刘蕾 |
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| 作者单位： | 云南大学资源环境与地球科学学院;梅州市气象局;梅县气象局; |
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| 摘 要： | 利用Micaps常规资料围绕环流形势,对梅州市2010年深秋时节的一次秋雨空报过程进行分析.结果表明:由于南岭的屏障作用,没有补充的西路弱冷空气很难影响到梅州市.在冬季风开始盛行的深秋季节,中低层的浅薄系统不容易激发出降水.强度较弱且移速又快的850 hPa切变线,其即使南压带来降水的可能性也不大,或是500 hPa的西风短波槽脊同样构不成大的影响.要带来降水,单一影响系统必须足够强大比如强冷空气、深厚的南支系统等,或者有一定强度多个系统相互遭遇.比如一定强度的冷空气遭遇到相对较深的南支槽等.通过对比初秋的一次全市性小雨天气过程,发现初秋夏季风还没退尽的气候背景使得冷空气更容易激发出降水,因此深秋的降水预报一定要把气候基础纳入考虑范围.
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| 关 键 词： | 秋季 冷空气 降水 空报 |
An analysis of the false forecast of an autumn rain in Meizhou,Guangdong |
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| YUAN Jia-feng,ZHANG Qing-hua,LIU Lei.An analysis of the false forecast of an autumn rain in Meizhou,Guangdong[J].Journal of Yunnan University(Natural Sciences),2011(Z1). |
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| Authors: | YUAN Jia-feng ZHANG Qing-hua LIU Lei |
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| Institution: | YUAN Jia-feng1,ZHANG Qing-hua2,LIU Lei3(1.Department of Atmospheric Science,Yunnan University,Kunming 650091,China,2.Meizhou Meteorological Bureau,Meizhou 514021,3.Meixian Meteorological Bureau,Meixian 514700,China) |
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| Abstract: | The false forecast of an autumn rain in Meizhou in late autumn of 2010 is analysed by the Micaps conventional observation data surrounding circulation pattern.The results indicate that since the barrier function of Nanling,it's difficult for western weak cold air which has nothing to add affecting the Meizhou.In late autumn the season which winter monsoon begins to prevail,shallow system in middle and low level isn't easy to stimulate precipitation.The strength of shear line on 850hPa is weak and it's movin... |
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| Keywords: | autumn cold air precipitation false forecast |
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