塔里木河下游生态输水对当地经济影响实证研究

文章采用随机抽样问卷调查、入户访问和统计资料相结合方法，塔里木河对下游输水后农牧民经济收入和当地经济变化进行研究。调查结果表明：90％以上的被调查者赞同生态输水带来了明显的经济利益，至少76％的农户家庭收入在输水后得到不同程度的增加，农牧民家庭收入增加更显著。随着输水后放牧数量增加193％，平均家庭收入相应增加了近2倍，人均收入提高了181％；96％的居民认为地方经济发展与生态输水有关。输水后两团场农林牧渔业生产年平均产值提高了141％，实际播种面积也增加18％。问卷调查的民意结果充分说明生态输水在改善生态环境的同时，给当地农牧民带来了可观的经济收入，并在一定程度上促进了当地经济的发展，突现出塔里木河下游生态输水的社会经济效益。

The Effects of Ecological Water Conveyances on the Local Economic Development

Combining methods of questionnaire, sampling and statistics data, this paper analyzes the changes of the shepherds and farmers＇ income, and the local economic development after the ecological water conveyance of Tarim River. The investigation results show： more than 90% of the investigated agree that there are favorable economic benefits brought about by the ecological water conveyances＇ at least 76 of the farmers＇income increases to some extent after the ecological water conveyances＇ the shepherds＇ income increases more significantly compared with that of the farmers＇ the livestock and personal income increases by 193% and 181% respectively, and their familiar income increases twice after the watering conveyances. Furthermore, 96% of the investigated admit that there is a close relationship between the ecological water conveyances and the local economic development. The comparative study （1990- 1999） shows that the average productive value of animal husbandry and fishery increases by 141% and the agrarian areas enlarge by 18% after the watering （2002--2005）. The results indicate that the ecological water conveyance not only improves the living environment but also increases the residents＇income and promote the local economic development to some extent which reveals obvious social benefits of the ecological watering to the lower reaches of Tarim River.