上海市人口老龄化对碳排放的影响研究

本文利用上海市1978—2014年的时间序列数据,基于STIRPAT模型及岭回归分析法对人口老龄化与碳排放的关系做了实证分析,结果表明老龄化对碳排放有显著的促进作用,弹性系数为0.49.分渠道的研究表明,老龄化通过生产对碳排放的影响并不明显,主要是通过消费渠道对碳排放产生正向影响.老龄化带来的医疗服务需求的增多、家庭趋于小型化及家庭户数增多促进了碳排放量的升高.老年家庭人均住房面积更大使得人均生活能耗更高.从老年人用能行为来看,老年人生活能耗可能更高,但考虑到收入因素对老年人消费的约束时,老年人生活能耗变得不确定.最后,提出了未来碳减排的可能方向.

The Impacts of Population Aging on Carbon Emission in Shanghai

Based on Shanghai's 1978-2014 time series data,through the STIRPAT model and the method of ridge regression analysis,this article analyzed the relationship between population aging and carbon emissions.The results show that population aging promotes carbon emission significantly.The elastic coefficient is 0.49.Analyzing through different influence channels,this article finds that the effect of production channel is faint.Population aging promotes carbon emission through consumption mainly.Population aging increases demands of medical treatment,decreases the size of families and increases the numbers of households.As a result,carbon emissions are increased by population aging.Aging family has bigger per living space.So per household carbon emission may be more.According to the behavior of energy use,elderly may consume more energy in family.But,it's uncertain when take income into account.Finally,it put forward the possible direction of carbon reduction in the future.