基于CFDAM模型的中国气候资金需求分析

本文对气候资金需求进行了定义,开发了气候资金需求分析模型.模型结果显示,要实现2030年达到排放峰值的目标,资金需求对应着3个阶段:a.早期投资阶段(2020年前),需要快速增加投资,预计每年资金需求增速超过4%,直到2020年逐渐增大到资金需求的峰值25 600亿元人民币,相当于当年度GDP的1.79%;b.平稳投资阶段(2020—2030年),资金需求相对稳定,每年的投资规模稳定在25 000亿元人民币左右,到2030年资金需求为25 200亿元人民币,相当于当年度GDP的1.8%;c.投资收益阶段(2030—2050年),受益于早期持续投资的长期收益,该阶段资金需求将快速下降,到2050年资金总需求降低为15 000亿元人民币.而目前每年的气候资金供给规模仅为5 256亿元/年,缺口超过20 000亿元/年.为了填补巨大的资金缺口,本文提出公共资金在完善气候资金制度框架,扩大气候资金供给,撬动私人投资方面将发挥举足轻重的作用,应当构建以气候基金为主体的公共资金体系.

Climate Financing Demand Analysis in China Based on CFDAM Model

The Climate Financing Demand Analysis Model(CFDAM) is developed to estimate the climate financing demand of China.The model results show that in order to achieve the peak emission target in 2030,the funding requirements can be divided to three stages.(1) The early investment stage (2020),where the need for rapid increase in investment is expected to increase the annual demand for funds more than 4％.It will be gradually increased to the peak demand for capital 2.56 trillion RMB until 2020,equivalent to 1.79％ of the current year's GDP.(2) The stable investment stage (2020-2030),where the demand for funds is relatively stable-the annual investment scale is about 2.5 trillion RMB.The investment demand is up to 2.52 trillion RMB until 2030,equivalent to the annual GDP of 1.80％.(3) The investment income stage (2030-2050),benefiting from the long-term gains of early investment,the demand for funds at this stage will decline rapidly,and the total demand for capital will be reduced to RMB 1.50 trillion RMB by 2050.However,at present,the annual supply of climate funds is only 525.6 billion RMB per year,the gap is more than 2 trillion RMB per year.The paper suggests that public funds can play a key role in leverage private investment and shorten the gap.