| 电信业务预测的新方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 袁浩,隆克平.电信业务预测的新方法研究[J].重庆邮电学院学报(自然科学版),1997,9(3):28-30. |
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| 作者姓名： | 袁浩 隆克平 |
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| 作者单位： | 重庆邮电学院科研所 |
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| 摘 要： | 作者主要是讨论电信业务量新的预测方法。在分析了传统的Ｆｉｓｈｅｒ－Ｐｒｙ模型不能对缺乏历史数据的新业务进行有效的预测后，提出了二次起飞模型和替换模型，实际观测结果表明这两种新模型可以较好地解决新业务的预测问题。
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| 关 键 词： | 电信业务预测 替换模型 二次起飞模型 |
A Study of New Methods for Forecasting Telecommunication Services |
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| Yuan Hao,Long Keping,Chen Jinu.A Study of New Methods for Forecasting Telecommunication Services[J].Journal of Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications(Natural Sciences Edition),1997,9(3):28-30. |
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| Authors: | Yuan Hao Long Keping Chen Jinu |
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| Abstract: | This paper mainly discusses the methods of forecasting the demand for telecommunication services. After analyzing the fact that the traditional Fisher-Pry model can not effeclively forecast the demand for new services historical data,we present a substitution model and a second flight model. The results of the forecast show that the two new models can settle this problem of forecasting new services. |
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| Keywords: | traffic forecasting Fisher Pry model substitution model second flight model- |
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