基于灰色关联度的科研项目风险评价方法

以大型科研项目管理中的风险管理问题为研究对象,提出了基于灰色关联度的科研项目工艺路线选择及分阶段风险影响评价方法.通过对原始数据进行量纲为1化和累加处理,求取灰色关联度得到关联矩阵,从而找到风险影响最小的工艺路线. 在此基础上,通过求取关联系数得到各风险源在项目进展各阶段的影响,并通过实例进一步阐明了灰色关联度评价方法的步骤和实际意义.该方法为小样本、贫信息的科研项目风险的评价问题提供了可行的数学分析工具.

Method of Evaluation for Risks in Research Projects Based on Grey Relevancy

Aims at a discussion on the problem of risk management in large scale scientific research projects. It puts forward a new method based on the theory of grey relevancy (GR) on the selection of technological routes and evaluation of the phase risk effects. GR can be acquired using the original data after their accumulation so as to get the relevancy matrix, from which the technological routes can be selected taking the lowest risk effect as its criterion. The risk is then sorted by priority in different phases. Furthermore, an example is given to explain the steps and the significance of this method. The method provides a tool of analysis on risk evaluation for such projects with limited number of samples and amount of information.