基于易感-感染-恢复(SIR)模型的2019冠状病毒病早期传播分析及政府防控措施研究

2019新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情的暴发给中国乃至全球公共卫生带来了重大挑战，研究传染病动力学模型有助于更好地优化疫情防控政策、评估干预措施效果。在已知病毒传播规律的基础上，考虑城市间的有效距离因素，引入干预项参数，建立可用于COVID-19疫情评估的SIR传播动力学模型；根据疫情的早期数据，分析感染人数、死亡人数等指标性数值的发展趋势，评估政府干预手段对趋势变化产生的影响。通过计算和理论分析表明，防控隔离和集中收治等措施有效抑制了病毒的蔓延态势。修正的SIR模型在COVID-19传播趋势分析上是可靠的，可以为制订未来的疫情干预决策提供较好的理论支持。

The Research on Early Spread Analysis and Government Prevention and Control Measures of Coronavirus Disease 2019 based on SIR Model

The epidemic of COVID-19 has brought great challenges to China and even global public health. Studying the dynamics model of infection disease will help us better optimizing prevention strategies and evaluating the effects of interventions On the basis of known virus spread law, considering the effective distance between cities, intervention parameters were introduced in this paper to establish a usable SIR spread dynamics model for the COVID-19 assessment. According to the early data of the epidemics, development trend by analyzing the number of infections and deaths, this model can evaluate the influence of government prevention and control measures. Finally, through calculation and theoretical analysis, it is shown that the measures of prevention and control effectively restrain the spread of the virus, and the modified SIR model mentioned above is reliable, which is able to provide a better theoretical support for the decision-making of future epidemic intervention.