| 复杂系统随机事件的一种预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 李天民,陈俐侃.复杂系统随机事件的一种预测方法[J].华中科技大学学报(自然科学版),1998(Z1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 李天民 陈俐侃 |
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| 作者单位： | 华中理工大学计算机科学与技术学院(李天民)，湖北省卫生防疫站(陈俐侃) |
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| 摘 要： | 提出了复杂系统随机事件的一种预测方法，其基本思想是搜索复杂系统中曾经出现过的类比事态；探讨了复杂系统的随机事件与多维随机过程的预测问题之间的异同；论述了随机事件预测的一种非参数型搜索算法；列举了一个实际的短期预测问题．
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| 关 键 词： | 复杂系统 随机事件 预测 类比 |
A Forecasting Method for Random Events of Complex Systems |
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| Li Tianmin Prof., College of Computer Sci. & Tech.,HUST,Wuhan ,China. Chen Likan.A Forecasting Method for Random Events of Complex Systems[J].JOURNAL OF HUAZHONG UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY.NATURE SCIENCE,1998(Z1). |
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| Authors: | Li Tianmin Prof College of Computer Sci & Tech HUST Wuhan China Chen Likan |
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| Institution: | Li Tianmin Prof., College of Computer Sci. & Tech.,HUST,Wuhan 430074,China. Chen Likan |
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| Abstract: | A forecasting method for random events of complex systems is developed. It bases on the search of analogue events in the prehistory of complex systems. The difference between the forecasting problem of multidimensional random processes and recurrent random events in complex systems is discussed. A nonparametric sorting algorithm for the forecasting of recurrent random events in complex systems is described. Basic parts of the nonparametric algorithm are the selection and optimization of algorithm parameters in the three dimensional spaces (F, m, L) . The short term forecasting problem of a practical example is illustrated. |
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| Keywords: | complex system random event forecasting analogue |
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