沪深300股指期现货市场间相依度测度实证研究

考虑金融市场间非线性、非正态性假设下的交叉相关性特征,基于复杂性理论视角,引入更符合金融市场实际的交叉相关性统计量检验、去趋势交叉相关性分析(DCCA)及多重分形去趋势交叉相关性分析(MF-DCCA)等方法对沪深300股指期现货市场间的相依度测度进行定量研究.研究结果表明:我国沪深300股指期现货市场不但自身具有长记忆性及多重分形特征,且两市场间也存在着显著的交叉相关性和交叉多重分形特征.上述研究结果将为深入研究多市场间非线性依赖关系和复杂特性机理提供有益参考.

Empirical Research on the Dependency of the CSI 300 Index Futures Market and Spot Market

Considering the financial markets’characteristics of the cross-correlation in the case of nonlinearity and non-normality， and from the perspective of complexity theory， the cross-correlation statistic test， detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) and multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) are mainly applied to quantitatively study the dependency of the CSI 300 index futures market and spot market， which are more in line with the financial market. The results show that long-term memory and multifractal characteristics exist in the CSI 300 index futures and spot markets respectively. Meanwhile， there are obvious cross-correlation characteristics between futures and spot markets， and the cross-correlation is multifractal. The results can provide a better reference for the nonlinear dependency between the markets and the complex mechanisms.