基于投资者情绪的证劵分析师盈利预测行为

通过固定效应模型对沪深两市2005~2013年的面板数据进行了实证分析,考察了投资者情绪对证劵分析师盈利预测的影响.研究结果表明,当投资者情绪高涨时,分析师盈利预测相对乐观,准确度较高,分歧度也较大;而当投资者情绪低落时,反之.作为理性人代表的证券分析师,其盈利预测结果除了受微观层面的企业自身因素影响之外,还受到宏观层面的投资者情绪的影响,从而在行为金融学的角度上论证了分析师的盈利预测行为.

Security Analysts Earning Forecasting Behaviors Based on Investor Sentiment

The fixed effects model was used to analyze empirically the panel data of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in 2005~2013， and the effect of investor sentiment on earning forecast of security analyst was investigated. The results showed that in the high investor sentiment period， earning forecast is relatively optimistic， the accuracy is higher and the divergence degree is bigger also，which are opposite in the low investor sentiment period. The prediction of security analyst-rational represent is affected not only by enterprise factors in micro-level， but also by the investor sentiment in macro-level. It demonstrates that the profit forecast behavior from the view of behavioral finance.