沈阳市尾气排放“红线”及最优机动车保有量研究

基于改进的箱式大气质量模型构建了尾气排放"红线"水平模型,测算了2012~2020年沈阳市尾气排放的"红线"水平;进一步构建最优机动车保有量模型,计算得到2012年欧Ⅲ、欧Ⅳ排放标准下的沈阳市最优机动车保有量分别为60万辆、99万辆,远低于现实水平122.2万辆;运用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型得到2013~2020年沈阳市机动车保有量预测水平,发现欧Ⅲ、欧Ⅳ排放标准下,2013~2020年沈阳市机动车保有量适度水平均低于灰色预测保有量水平;欧V排放标准下,2016年以后灰色预测保有量水平将大于适度水平。立足于机动车保有量增长与尾气污染防治,沈阳市应着重于优化城市交通结构,降低柴油大货车和柴油大客车的数量,适当减少私人小汽车数量,大力发展城市公共交通,同时合理规划与建设交通基础设施,提高路网密度,优化路网结构。

Research on the red line of exhaust emission and optimal vehicle amount of Shenyang

This paper built the model of red line of exhaust emission of Shenyang based on the improved box atmospheric quality model and measured the red line of exhaust emission of Shenyang from 2012 to 2020. Furthermore, this paper built the model of optimal vehicle amount and measured the optimal vehicle amount of Shenyang under Euro III and Euro IV are six hundred thousand and nine hundred and ninety thousand, far below the vehicle amount of reality. Besides, we predicted the vehicle amount of Shenyang using GM (1, 1) grey prediction model. We explored that the optimal vehicle amount of Shenyang are lower than the gray forecast level under the euro III and euro IV emission standard .After 2016, the gray forecast level will be larger than optimal vehicle amount under euro V emission standard. Therefore, government should lay stress on the optimization of urban traffic structure, reducing the amount of diesel trucks, diesel buses and private cars and develop urban public transportation vigorously. At the same time, government should plan and construct the transport infrastructure reasonably to improve the density of road network and optimize network structure.