电子设备寿命试验数据的灰色预测方法

灰色GM(1,1)模型中的背景值构造法是影响模型适应性和精度的关键因素.将所构造的背景值公式引入GM(1,1)模型,并用该模型预测电子设备寿命试验数据,目的是缩短寿命试验时间.计算结果表明,所构造的背景值公式有助于提高GM(1,1)模型的预测精度,为有效缩短电子设备寿命试验时间提供了一种值得探讨的方法.

The Grey Forecasting Method of Life Test Data of Electronic Equipments

The structure method of background value in grey system GM(1,1) model is considered to have an important influence on the adaptability and precision of GM(1,1) model. In this paper, the formula of the background value established by the author is introduced into GM(1,1) model, which is used to forecast the life test data on electron plant, thus reduce the life test time. The result precision of an example shows the formula of the background value can enhance the forecast precision of GM(1,1) model. Finally a valuable method that can validly reduce the life test time on electron plant is presented also.;