环境稳定性与市场效率

投资者的预期及偏好乃资本市场行为的微观基础，由此演示在环境不稳定或不确定等条件下市场本身无法克服自我强化过程的出现，从而出现价格泡沫及过度振荡等低效率行为，降低市场效率，这说明资本市场乃典型的复杂系统，其效率应体现其适应环境变化、纠正价格扭曲的能力，进而使有效市场假设成为稳定环境下市场适应性的特例，另外，对影响市场效率的因素和政府的积极作用作了简要的探讨。

Environment Stability and Capital Market Efficiency

Basing on a natural and plausible model, it is argued that the capital market by itself can not absolutely avoid the inefficient self reinforcing phenomena when the economic surroundings are unstable. In this sense the capital market is a typical complex system and the conventional efficient market hypothesis should be superceded by the adaptability of the market in order to measure the market efficiency more effectively. The relevance of powers outside the market, say the government, to the maket's adaptability is highlighted together with discussions involving the recent global financial crises.