海外油气项目风险-效益联动分析模型与应用

由于资源国多变的政策法规、日趋苛刻的合同条款以及区块内难以确定的地质条件和作业环境等, 使得中国石油公司从事海外石油项目开发的风险越来越高. 该文首先从风险源的角度对海外油气勘探开发过程中的风险进行分类, 从三个层面阐述了风险因素的识别方法; 将项目NPV计算、蒙特卡洛模拟和风险-效益传递分析方法相结合, 建立了以经济效益为核心的风险-效益联动分析模型, 提出了基于预计最低收益的风险指数并给出了其计算方法; 收集整理了中亚地区实际石油区块数据资料, 通过模型计算, 给出了各区块的风险-效益分析; 分析结果表明, 哈萨克斯坦大部分油气区块位于低风险区域, 土库曼斯坦的油气项目多数属于高风险高收益, 投资者在乌兹别克斯坦投资石油项目往往面临高风险低收益.

Model of risk-benefit co-analysis on oversea oil and gas projects and its applications

The risks in the oversea oil business become more and more serious because of the changing polices,oppressive contracts provisions,undetermined geological conditions and adverse operating circumstances in the resource countries.This paper classifies the risk types according to the possible risk-sources and demonstrates the risk recognition and analysis process from three different stages.By combining the NPV method,the Monte-Carlo simulation method and the method for analyzing the risk-benefit influencing process,the paper builds a new risk-benefit co-analysis model with the economic effect as the core consideration and,furthermore,puts forward a new kind of risk index in view of the necessary economic return.The risk index calculation method and process are given as well.Based on the collected data and information from the actual oil and gas resource blocks in the Central Asia countries,the risk-benefit co-analysis has been made by means of the developed model.The results show that,most oil and gas blocks in Kahcakstan belong to those with lower risks,the petroleum projects in Tukumanstan are mostly of higher benefits with higher risks,and the investment to the oil projects in Uzebekstan would often meet higher risks and lower benefits.