| 改进SCEM-UA算法在概念性降雨-径流模型参数优选中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 曹飞凤,严齐斌,张世强.改进SCEM-UA算法在概念性降雨-径流模型参数优选中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012,32(6):1362-1368. |
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| 作者姓名： | 曹飞凤 严齐斌 张世强 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 浙江省水利水电工程局, 杭州 310020;2. 中国科学院 寒区旱区环境与工程研究所, 兰州 730000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(41030527) |
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| 摘 要： | 在系统研究SCEM-UA算法基础上, 借鉴自适应Metropolis算法的思想, 对SCEM-UA算法中推荐分布的协方差策略和 接受率策略进行了改进, 改进后的算法能有效确保样本多样性的丰富和保持, 增强算法全局搜索能力, 避免'早熟收敛'. 以岷江流域降雨-径流模型参数优选研究为例, 分析了改进算法在推求参数后验分布的搜索性 能和效率, 计算结果表明, 改进SCEM-UA算法的参数推荐分布和接受率随着计算过程自动更新, 整体计算效率和 解的精度要明显优于传统的SCEM-UA算法.
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| 关 键 词： | MCMC方法 参数优选 后验分布 改进SCEM-UA算法 不确定性分析 概念性降雨径流模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-04-02 |
Application of modified SCEM-UA algorithm for parameter optimization of conceptual rainfall-runoff model |
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| CAO Fei-feng
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YAN Qi-bin
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ZHANG Shi-qiang.Application of modified SCEM-UA algorithm for parameter optimization of conceptual rainfall-runoff model[J].Systems Engineering —Theory & Practice,2012,32(6):1362-1368. |
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| Authors: | CAO Fei-feng YAN Qi-bin ZHANG Shi-qiang |
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| Institution: | 1. Bureau of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou 310020, China;2. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China |
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| Abstract: | Covariance of proposal distribution and the acceptance rate of SCEM-UA algorithm are modified based on the principle of adaptive Metropolis.The modified SCEM-UA algorithm can effectively ensure the diversity of the population and capability of the global search capability as well as computational efficiency,avoiding the premature convergence.The efficiency and effectiveness of modified SCEM-UA algorithm for sampling the posterior distribution of model parameters is discussed based on the case study of the Min River Basin.The results show that modified SCEM-UA algorithm is consistent,effective and efficient in inferring the parameter posterior distribution,and is much better than the original algorithm in the aspects of computation efficiency and accuracy. |
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| Keywords: | Markov chain Monte Carlo parameter optimization posterior distribution modified shuffled complex evolution metropolis algorithm uncertainty analysis conceptual rainfall-runoff model |
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