基于投入产出局部闭模型的中国房地产业经济增长结构分解分析

房地产业是国民经济不可或缺的重要组成部分, 定量测算影响房地产业快速增长的因素对当前宏观经济调控有着重要参考价值. 为契合房地产业与居民消费高度相关的特点, 采用将居民部门作为内生变量的投入产出局部闭模型, 建立了基于投入产出局部闭模型的结构分解分析技术. 将房地产业增长分解为技术进步、劳动报酬率、居民平均消费倾向、消费方式、 固定资本形成等因素, 定量测算影响房地产业发展的各因素的贡献大小. 结果表明:房地产业的增长应主要归因于固定资本形成、居民消费方式的变化以及技术进步, 劳动报酬率的下降制约了房地产业的发展.

Structural decomposition analysis of the growth of China’s real estate sector based on partially closed input-output model

Real estate sector is one of inevitable components of the whole national economy.The paper studies the sources of growth of the sector with the help of a structural decomposition analysis based on a partially closed input-output model.The results show that the change of fixed assets formed,the pattern of household consumption and technique improvement are main contributors,while the effect of low income rate of labor is negative.