受约束供应链模型的复杂动力学行为

本研究建立了受到不可退货和有限供货能力约束的非线性供应链存系统模型, 并将其表示为分段线性的形式．通过稳定性分析和数值模拟实验说明, 在某常见参数设置下, 上游厂商的削减库存行为会导致下游厂商库存系统的动力学行为复杂化, 使用李雅普诺夫指数验证了上述结论．并从统计学意义上得到系统出现各种状态的概率．结果显示库存成本与动力学复杂性之间存在均衡．供应链成员应当谨慎设置目标库存以保证供应链的稳定运行．

Complex dynamic behaviors of constrained supply chain systems

Nonlinear supply chain inventory system models with forbidden returning and limited supply capacity are established in piecewise linear form.Stability analysis and simulation results show that under certain parameter settings,improper inventory cutoff by supply chain upstream participants may lead to complex dynamic behaviors of the whole supply chain inventory system.This finding is confirmed by calculating maximal Lyapunov Exponent.The statistical frequency of system states is derived.Results suggest that trade-off exists between inventory holding cost and system dynamic complexity.Target inventory level should be carefully set to ensure smooth operation in supply chains.