| 雪灾情形下城市交通站点负荷的动态预测模型 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 魏亨武,方志耕,杨保华,胡明礼,孔彪.雪灾情形下城市交通站点负荷的动态预测模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012,32(5):1003-1009. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 魏亨武 方志耕 杨保华 胡明礼 孔彪 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 南京航空航天大学 经济与管理学院, 南京 210016;2. 徐州师范大学 管理学院, 徐州 221009 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(90924022,70901040,70971064);教育部人文社科基金项目(10YJC630084) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 提出了一种新的城市交通站点负荷的动态预测模型. 该模型克服传统的Markov链方法的不足, 考虑到乘客转移偏好的动态改变以及各交通站点之间的滞留情况会相互影响, 以此构建了雪灾情形下乘客分布的极大熵模型, 并进一步设计了交通站点负荷率的计算方法, 推演出了雪灾后交通站点负荷的动态变化情况, 为相关部门采取应对措施提供参考依据. 最后用一个预测实例比较该方法与传统的Markov链方法的预测结果, 结果表明该方法更优.
|
| 关 键 词： | 雪灾 交通站点 负荷 极大熵模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011-09-26 |
Dynamic prediction model of the load of urban traffic sites during snow disaster |
| |
| WEI Heng-wu
,
FANG Zhi-geng
,
YANG Bao-hua
,
HU Ming-li
,
KONG Biao.Dynamic prediction model of the load of urban traffic sites during snow disaster[J].Systems Engineering —Theory & Practice,2012,32(5):1003-1009. |
| |
| Authors: | WEI Heng-wu FANG Zhi-geng YANG Bao-hua HU Ming-li KONG Biao |
| |
| Institution: | 1. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China;2. School of Management, Xuzhou Normal University, Xuzhou 221009, China |
| |
| Abstract: | A new dynamic prediction model of load of urban traffic sites during snow disaster is presented. The model overcomes the shortcomings of traditional Markov Chain method.Considering the dynamic changes of passengers’ preferences and the interaction of traffic sites,the author establishes the maximum entropy model of distribution of passengers during snow disaster,and on this basis a method of calculating the load rate of traffic sites is presented,with which the dynamic changes of the load of traffic sites can be deduced.This provides a reference for the relevant departments to make response measures.Finally,a case is used to compare the method with the Markov chain method,and the result shows that the method the author presented is better. |
| |
| Keywords: | snow disaster traffic sites load maximum entropy model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《系统工程理论与实践》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《系统工程理论与实践》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
