基于固定股利支付比率的企业盈余可持续性优化模型及实证

借助 Ohlson 模型中股票内在价值与会计信息之间准确的数学逻辑关系,假定企业按利润大小的固定比率支付给股东股利, 在借鉴 Kormendi 和 Lipe 盈余可持续模型的基础上,运用 Ohlson 模型对 Kormendi 和 Lipe 的盈余可持续模型进行了优化, 并构建出了更符合现实条件的盈余可持续性指标模型.接着, 对求得的盈余可持续性指标和 Kormendi 和 Lipe 的盈余可持续性指标的有用性进行了比较性的实证检验. 我国 34 家上市公司的意外盈余反应系数的实证分析表明: 所求的盈余可持续性优化模型对我国上市公司的盈余反应系数具有更强的相关性, 从而进一步证明了该模型更符合现实假设之下的盈余可持续性模型的有用性.

Optimization model of earnings persistence under fixed dividends payment ratio and empirical research

With the help of Ohlson models which have strik mathematical relations between the intrinsic value of share prices and the accounting information,supposing that firms pay dividends under fixed ratio,this paper optimizes the earnings persistence models developed by Kormendi and Lipe and gives out a new earnings persistence measures with more reasonable hypotheses.Empirical results of earnings response coefficients of 34 sample companies show that the new earnings persistence measures have more explainatory power than that of earnings persistence measures developed by Kormendi and Lipe.